By Reuben Abati
With about 10 months until the 2027 general elections, Nigeria’s opposition landscape appears increasingly fractured, disorganised and strategically weakened.
Although no fewer than 21 political parties have been registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to participate in the polls, developments within the parties, including internal crises, litigations and other destabilising factors, may shrink that number before the elections.
Across the major platforms — Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Accord, internal disputes, leadership tussles and structural weaknesses continue to erode their capacity to mount a credible challenge against the ruling APC.
While the APC and President Bola Tinubu may not enjoy the overwhelming popularity typically associated with incumbency, the absence of a cohesive and credible opposition capable of exploiting this vulnerability could ultimately clear the path for their continued hold on power.
A comparative look at the opposition’s current state against the coordinated coalition and merger that birthed the ruling APC between 2013 and 2015 underscores why 2027 may not produce a similar upset.
At present, the PDP, once Africa’s dominant ruling party, remains mired in prolonged internal crises, including leadership tussles over the National Secretary position, deep divisions between camps loyal to former Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike and Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde, as well as unresolved zoning controversies ahead of 2027.
The party’s inability to enforce discipline or reconcile aggrieved blocs has weakened its national cohesion.
The PDP has been significantly weakened by internal divisions, with the Wike-aligned faction consolidating influence and, crucially, enjoying tacit recognition within official political structures. This situation has blurred the party’s ideological direction and electoral readiness.
Ironically, the Wike-aligned bloc has, on multiple occasions, openly signalled its willingness to support President Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027. Such declarations have heightened concerns that the PDP may struggle to field a formidable presidential candidate or, worse, enter the race deeply divided and strategically compromised.
A growing wave of defections has further weakened the party, with several governors and lawmakers aligning with the APC, thereby altering the country’s political balance ahead of 2027.
More than 10 governors elected on the PDP platform have defected, while at the legislative level, the pattern is even more pronounced, with several members of state assemblies and the National Assembly switching allegiance.
The Labour Party (LP), which surged to national prominence in the 2023 elections on the back of Peter Obi’s candidacy, has also been engulfed in internal wrangling, leadership disputes and factional claims.
The party is entering the 2027 electoral cycle under significant strain, with its post-2023 momentum steadily eroded by internal conflicts, defections and organisational fragility. What initially appeared as a rising alternative force is increasingly weighed down by structural and political inconsistencies that raise questions about its electoral viability.
At the core of the crisis is a prolonged leadership dispute that involved former National Chairman Julius Abure. Allegations of mismanagement and lack of transparency have fuelled dissent, with a section of stakeholders challenging the legitimacy of his continued leadership. This discontent culminated in the emergence of a parallel structure led by Nenadi Usman as interim national chairman, effectively splitting the party into competing factions. The resulting duality of authority has created uncertainty and weakened internal cohesion.
Beyond the leadership tussle, defections have further exposed the party’s instability. Within a short period, the LP has witnessed the exit of over 20 lawmakers, many aligning with the APC. These defections reflect declining confidence in the party’s structure and its capacity to sustain political relevance beyond electoral cycles.
Internal divisions also persist over strategic direction, particularly over alliance and collaboration with the ADC. While some stakeholders see coalition-building as necessary, others view it as a threat to the party’s identity, further complicating consensus-building.
Compounding these challenges are financial constraints that continue to limit operational capacity. Inadequate funding has affected grassroots mobilisation, administrative efficiency and overall party activity, with reports of resignations by officials citing lack of institutional support. This weak financial base underscores the LP’s broader structural limitations as a relatively young platform.
Taken together, these challenges suggest a party struggling to transition from an electoral movement into a stable political institution. Without resolving its leadership crisis, stemming defections and building a coherent national structure, the LP risks entering the 2027 elections fragmented and weakened.
Similarly, the NNPP, which made notable inroads in 2023, particularly in Kano State, has drifted into political limbo. Its structure has been severely disrupted by the exit of key figures. Kano State governor Abba Yusuf’s alignment with the APC, alongside the defection of the party’s national leader, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to the ADC under the Kwankwasiyya Movement, has splintered the NNPP’s base and diminished its national relevance.
The party’s influence remains largely tied to Kwankwaso’s political base in Kano, but without broader national alliances, it is increasingly confined to a regional platform with limited capacity to shape a nationwide contest.
Smaller parties such as the SDP and Accord continue to grapple with limited national structures, leadership inconsistencies and minimal electoral impact.
However, the unfolding crisis within the ADC, particularly its standoff with INEC over the legality of the transition from the Ralph Nwosu-led National Executive Committee (NEC) to the embattled David Mark-led leadership, has introduced another layer of uncertainty.
At present, INEC has removed the names of Mark and Aregbesola from its portal, maintaining that it will not entertain any correspondence with the party until the matter is resolved in court. If unresolved, the dispute, now entangled in conflicting court orders and INEC’s shifting recognition, could jeopardise the party’s eligibility to fully participate in the 2027 elections.
Rather than serving as a unifying platform, the ADC is increasingly perceived as unstable and legally uncertain, discouraging potential defectors.
The most glaring weakness across opposition parties remains the absence of a unified front. Unlike the APC’s formation, the current opposition lacks a shared ideological foundation, a consensus presidential candidate and a strong framework for coalition-building.
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A former INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner, Professor Lai Olurode, warned that unless opposition parties resolve their internal crises and forge a credible coalition, the APC may enter the 2027 elections against a divided and weakened field, significantly boosting its chances of retaining power.
Ironically, many opposition stakeholders continue to blame the ruling party and President Tinubu for their predicament, alleging the use of state institutions and legal instruments to destabilise them.
A Lagos APC chieftain, Olabode George, in a telephone conversation yesterday, accused the President and INEC of being behind the crises in major opposition parties, while also criticising conflicting court judgments as a factor weakening the PDP.
Similarly, some opposition figures have called on the international community to take note of alleged attempts by the APC to undermine opposition parties ahead of the elections.
These claims come amid deepening crises within parties such as the LP and PDP, with allegations that the ruling party is exploiting institutional leverage to weaken its rivals.
The Movement for Credible Elections (MCE), led by Wale Okunniyi, has also accused the APC of manipulating democratic institutions to advance what it described as a “one-man rule agenda,” calling for the resignation of INEC leadership. It further alleged the use of intimidation, inducements and political pressure to trigger defections.
However, the APC’s National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, dismissed the allegations, insisting that defections are voluntary and driven by the party’s governance record. He also described the ADC crisis as self-inflicted.
The ADC–INEC face-off has not only provoked divergent interpretations but has also exposed the fragility of Nigeria’s opposition ecosystem as the country approaches the 2027 elections.
At the centre of the dispute is INEC’s interpretation of the Court of Appeal directive on status quo ante bellum, which it relied upon to withdraw recognition of the Mark-led NEC. The decision has created a leadership vacuum and raised fresh concerns about opposition readiness.
While opposition leaders continue to fault INEC and demand accountability, the commission maintains that its actions are guided by the law and the provisions of the 1999 Constitution.
Section 225A of the Constitution clearly states INEC’s powers over political parties, albeit with limitations. While Section 225A permits deregistration under strict conditions, Sections 153 and the Third Schedule restrict the commission to organising elections and monitoring parties.
Sections 221–224 outline party formation and internal democracy without granting INEC control over leadership disputes. For parties such as ADC and PDP, this underscores that legitimacy contests lie within party structures or the courts.
Pointing to the Constitution, Okunniyi criticised INEC’s role, alleging that its actions appear to suppress opposition platforms ahead of 2027.
Though he argued that the ADC crisis reflects broader structural weaknesses within opposition parties, including poor adherence to constitutional processes and vulnerability to legal and political disruptions, Okunniyi maintained that INEC could not deny awareness of the ADC’s leadership transition, questioning the commission’s stance and describing it as a threat to democratic norms.
In a separate view, Olurode described expectations that any opposition party could unseat the APC in 2027 as unrealistic, noting that most parties lack ideological grounding and are driven largely by power contests.
He added that while ruling parties often create institutional challenges for the opposition in African democracies, opposition actors must prioritise internal cohesion and long-term strategy.
Although he noted that all hope is not lost, Olurode advised opposition parties to begin planning beyond 2027, even as he advocated constitutional reforms, including the possibility of a single-term presidency.
However, a former member of the House of Representatives from Rivers State, Bernard Mikko, dismissed allegations that the ruling party is responsible for the crises within opposition platforms.
According to Mikko, “Everybody accusing the ruling APC today of stiffening opposition parties did the same against former President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP in 2015. The then APC accused Jonathan of using slush funds to campaign, just as they invited the international community to monitor his government. Opposition parties should get serious and face their business.”
However, a chieftain of Ohanaeze, Goddy Uwazurike, said INEC has no right to interfere in the internal politics of the ADC.
He also warned that unless Nigerians stand up against the drift towards a one-party state, “the outcome could be disastrous. This is a battle we cannot leave for politicians alone.”
On the implications, Uwazurike said, “The most immediate implication is the likely consolidation of power by the ruling APC. A divided opposition reduces the chances of mounting a coordinated national challenge, thereby improving the incumbency advantage and reinforcing the APC’s electoral dominance across key regions.” He also noted that closely tied to this is the growing risk of a one-party dominant system. “As opposition parties weaken and political actors defect in search of survival, Nigeria’s multiparty democracy could gradually tilt towards a system where one party exerts overwhelming influence at both federal and state levels.”
